Some gas stations in Bakersfield have reached six dollars, with other cities in California being even higher. Consumers began to see this price rise following the United States’ entry into the war against Iran.
Dr. Richard Gearhart, professor of economics at Cal State University, Bakersfield, stated that, along with rising gasoline prices, helium and fertilizer will also be affected. According to Gearhart, these impacts will raise grocery prices because fertilizer from the Middle East is being impacted, along with the oil needed to transport the food.
“Under a presidential administration that has essentially caused a lot of negative supply shocks to agriculture already, with immigration and trade policies and tariffs, food inflation of four percent is likely going to be a thing of the past. We’re likely to see food inflation of five or six percent. So that basically means every $1000 you spend on groceries. You’re probably going to be spending about another $100 just because of this war.”
Gearhart explained that it will take time to get prices back to where they were and that the Federal Reserve estimated it will take about a year and a half to get inflation and gas prices back to where they were, and even longer for economic growth to recover.
“The loss in jobs and the loss in economic growth will take about five years to fully recover, get back to what it should have been. So it’s not a quick process. It’s not an easy process,” said Gearhart.
He stated that Goldman Sachs estimated that the war has eliminated around 10,000 jobs per month in the U.S economy.
“Overall, in large part because just manufacturing plants are shutting down, long-haul truck drivers, distribution, and logistics are slowing down. And that’s actually extra detrimental here in Kern County because we’re located about two hours from some of the largest ports on the West Coast, the ports of Los Angeles and the ports of Long Beach, where a lot of goods are warehoused. We have a lot of Amazon distribution centers, target distribution centers. We have a lot of logistics hubs,” explained Gearhart.
Adding on, he stated that as it costs more for drivers to deliver, there will be fewer shipments, leading to fewer workers being needed to unload. For Kern County, Gearhart pointed out that there is a logistics hub that was built in Rosedale, but has yet to have a tenant due to tariffs, trade wars, and now the war in Iran.
According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the average gas price has increased by a dollar in one month, and the average price in California on March 30, 2026, is $5.877 for regular grade, and diesel is $7.364.
“Prior to the Iran war, we were seeing about $60 per barrel of oil. Through 2027, we’re expected to see about $80 per barrel of oil,” said Gearhart. “Which means gas prices are probably going to be about permanently ¢30 high or food prices are going to be ¢30 higher. So this is a long-term thing. We entered this. There is no such thing as short-term. What was the term that they used? Short-term pain for long-term gain? It’s long-term pain for maybe some gain.”
In 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill, or H.R.1 was passed, and there were cuts to Medicaid payments. Gearhart explained that now the federal government gives states block grants to pay for certain things within Medicaid or Medi-Cal; however, healthcare facilities in rural areas are at risk of closure. In Kern County, this affects areas like McFarland, Delano, Lost Hills, and Tehachapi.
“With the price of gas increasing, they can’t afford to travel to Bakersfield to get their care. So there’s a definite possibility that we see worse health outcomes in our rural areas, and they are already hotbeds of poverty and poor health outcomes, significant drug abuse,” said Gearhart. “So we’ve essentially created something in economics called a negative externality. Where we just worsen economic outcomes, health outcomes. And it’s problematic because we also can’t use the Get Bus or other public transportation systems to go to these areas, because we just don’t have the money, and gas prices are higher.”
Gearhart stated that while he believes there are benefits to eliminating the Iranian regime that murders its own citizens, the war should have been taken to the legislature for a vote “rather than have the executive do it.”
He stated it is important for Kern County residents to know that even oil and agriculture-producing areas are not “immune” to the shocks that are happening.
“You know, it’s not protecting us. It’s not going to minimize the outcomes. We’re still seeing these negative outcomes. So these shocks impact all of us, and these decisions impact all of us. And it’s unfortunate that we’re doing a lot of these executive decisions that are far-reaching, that don’t have legislative oversight. So I think one thing is contact your local state representatives and push back against this because they have the power to stop this, and they just choose not to,” said Gearhart.
One Bakersfield resident, Pauline Guzman, at a 76 Gas Station, where the price was $5.15 for cash and $5.35 for credit/debit, stated she believes there should be no reason for the prices to be growing at these rates when there is oil being pumped in Bakersfield. When asked what she would like to say to policymakers, she explained that they do not care about the prices.
“They couldn’t care less because they live off our dollar. So, I mean, that’s how they provide for their family off our dollar, and we have to manage what we make,” said Guzman.
She stated that she’d just come from the coast, where diesel was over eight dollars, and her son uses diesel because he’s a welder.
Mario Magana was preparing to use the same station and stated he now drives further for gas because the one near him has gotten too high.
“Yeah, it’s too much. I usually have always tried to go to the nearest convenience store, which is usually right by my house, and they gone up to 6 something. So now I had to drive a lot farther out to get there,” said Magana. “It takes a lot more time for me to get places and takes a lot more money out of my check at the end of the day.”
Gearhart explained that while the current and the last two presidential terms, President Donald Trump’s first term and former President Joe Biden’s term, have done a “very poor job” at being pro-growth for the economy, it is still resilient. He stated that the presidencies have been “negative supply shocks” by doing things that harm growth.
“The American economy has been amazingly resilient. You know, COVID inflation of 2022, the war in Ukraine, and yet we’ve still been growing,” said Gearhart. “So our growth, our economy, should be so much better than what it is right now. But the fact that we’re still seeing even minimal growth and still relatively mild inflation is a testament not to the people who make the laws or run the country. It’s a testament to the Americans who make this stuff. We are still the most productive, vibrant, diverse economy in the world, and we just need the government to just stop.”
He stated the benefit of the government “stopping” is because there may not be spending or tax bills getting passed that have done more damage than good by catering to “special interest groups.”
Gearhart explained that the current inflation rate, according to the Consumer Price Index, is 2.6 percent, with a goal of two percent. However, he stated the Federal Reserve uses Personal Consumption Expenditures, which is also supposed to be at two percent, but was at 3.1 percent last month, and expects to be 3.3 to 3.4 percent this month.
“It’ll just kind of be what we saw at the end of the Biden administration in 2023 and 2024, which is two percent inflation, four percent growth. Everyone was seeing wage gains.”
Gearhart urged people to vote in the upcoming midterm elections. He stated that the hope is to return to what was seen at the end of the Biden administration: wage growth.
“There’s reason for optimism if the federal government just stops. Vote in the midterms. A government where the legislative branch is run by Democrats, and the executive branch is run by Republicans, will get nothing done, and that will actually be pro-growth,” said Gearhart.
