The government shutdown ended on Wednesday without the extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are tax credits set to expire in December 2025. Associate Professor of Political Science, Dr. Ivy Cargile, spoke about how this government shutdown came to be and whether the deal of Republicans voting in favor of the extension in December would guarantee the extension.
Cargile explained that the shutdown was a result of both parties not being able to come to an agreement on how to set the budget for the year. She said that, in terms of who’s fault it is, it depends on how individuals feel about the topic personally; however, the shutdown could have possibly been prevented if the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, had agreed to have the discussion of extending the credits earlier this year.
If members of the Senate or House wish to discuss anything, they must have the support of their leadership, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
“Without their green light, nothing can happen. So that’s part of the reason why in March it didn’t happen. The leadership did not want to discuss it,” said Cargile.
She also noted that it was appalling to see that President Donald Trump was not involved in the negotiations to end the government shutdown while it was happening, unlike every other president who has been involved when they were in office.
According to Cargile, the Democrats had been using the shutdown as leverage to get the Republicans to listen to them. She explained that people knew the subsidies needed to be discussed because of the Big Beautiful Bill that was passed earlier this year.
“Because the Democrats are the numerical minority, they’re trying to scramble to figure out, oh, this is going to be a disaster,” said Cargile. “If people lose their healthcare, we are back to times before we had the Affordable Healthcare Act.”
She mentioned that for people who remember what that was like, it was a difficult time. She remembered trying to get insurance, and because she was a woman, that alone meant she’d have to pay $1,000 a month.
According to the U.S Department of Health and Human Services, a 25-year-old woman who did not have maternity coverage could pay up to 81 percent more than a 25-year-old man with the same plan before the ACA. The end of gender discrimination in insurance companies came in 2014.
Although Cargile does not believe it will get as bad as before the ACA happened, she does think it will have an impact on emergency rooms, specifically in rural areas. She explained that while some people will be able to find the means to pay, a lot of people won’t be able to. So, many people may go back to how they approached healthcare before the ACA, where they just tried home remedies until their condition was critical.
“Once the person’s health situation got really critical, they would end up in the emergency room. There is a law in the U.S where emergency rooms are not allowed to turn anybody away,” said Cargile. “Emergency rooms become the fall person, but they still don’t have insurance, so the emergency room takes up that cost.”
When this was happening before the ACA, states were asking for money from the federal government to assist with the emergency rooms because they did not have the money to pay staff, leading to them shutting down, according to Cargile.
“This hits rural areas particularly hard because if the only game in town shuts down, then what do you do? Can your healthcare emergency be delayed enough to make it to L.A.? Can it be delayed enough to make it to the next large city over, maybe in Fresno? If it’s a dire emergency, if it’s a heart attack, if it’s a stroke, you may not have that time,” said Cargile.
She stated that many federal tax dollars were going to help the emergency rooms and that a lot of people were in healthcare debt, and families were filing for bankruptcy.
Cargile explained that the issue with still not knowing if there will be an extension is that open enrollment is currently happening. She stated that people have a limited time to decide whether to keep their current plan or switch, yet they cannot have an accurate rate to base their decision on because of the uncertainty.
People have been writing letters to their representatives explaining why they need the extension and what they will be paying if it does not happen, according to Cargile. She said one of the most recent stories she heard that broke her heart is a couple where the husband has cancer and the wife has kidney disease, and her premium is going to go up by almost $7,000, and they can’t afford it.
Now that the government is open, the possibility of extending the subsidies hinges on trust, according to Cargile. She noted that the deal to vote on the tax credits is just a deal, not a law.
“Supposedly, the deal is that there is going to be a vote on these tax credits in two weeks. Not sure if that’s going to happen or not,” said Cargile. “The majority in the Senate can easily say Oh nope, we just can’t do it now. They can delay, delay, and delay, and things expire, and oh, sorry, didn’t get done.”
While people can’t be held accountable to vote on the extensions before they expire, Cargile mentioned that many seats are up for re-election, and she suspects people will hold whoever they believe is to blame accountable at the polls. However, she said this also depends on whether there are free and fair elections in the upcoming midterms.
She mentioned that Trump is trying to put pressure on states to eliminate mail-in voting. This would limit accessibility to voting for people who are bedridden or unable to make it to the polls for a number of reasons, such as mobility issues or other obligations that prevent them from staying in line. Cargile also stated that eliminating mail-in voting would cut the number of polling sites available.
She explained that cutting the number of sites means longer lines, and although in California, if you are in line by 8 p.m., you can vote, not everyone can stand or wants to stand in line until 10 p.m. if needed to vote. Also, this law is available in all states.
Midterm elections will be in November of 2026, and Cargile stated it is important for people to vote because the people in the House and Senate are the ones who make the laws and create the regulations that govern our everyday lives. For example, she mentioned how SNAP and WIC were not funded during the shutdown, and they are the ones who are responsible for it.
“If you are a user of the federal government social safety net programs like WIC, like SNAP, you want to be mindful of who is in government who’s representing you,” said Cargile. “Because these are the people who make those decisions, and they make the decisions of whether or not a compromise can be had to avoid a government shutdown.”
Cargile also noted that while the government shutdown happened and people were unable to work or get assistance for food, those in the House and Senate were still paid, although the House had not been in session the whole time.
“What’s really messed up about all of this is that even though they haven’t been in session, they’re still getting paid. Congress is still getting paid. They got their paycheck on November first,” said Cargile, mentioning all of the workers who did not get paid. “All of these programs completely unfunded, but their salaries, they keep bringing those.”
Cargile also mentioned that the government shutdown’s end does not mean that everything will return to normal right away, especially since Trump laid off people. She said it’s important to remember that it will take time and suspects things may return to normal by January.
